Afghan War: Game Plan
Media war against Pakistan preceded much ahead of the Aerial Savagery that was let loose on Afghanistan and it appeared that the USA and its allies would turn the war ravaged country into rubbles and Taliban collapse would happen within days and the triumphant US soldiers would march into Afghanistan to enthrone King Zahir Shah as the caretaker of de Talibanized Afghanistan. But such expectations despite heavy aerial bombardments, commando actions and desperate northern Alliance offensives, did not produce the desired results. More than one month has lapsed, and the US military strategy seems to have created very little dent in the Afghan will and resilience to resist. Truly speaking, the Taliban have gained victory even without engaging in ground war. USA thus being utterly dismayed is impelled to prolong the bombings, which only speaks of the state of frustration and helplessness. This high-profile offensive yielding no dividends has turned attention towards Pakistan and every visiting scholar and journalist is concerned about the health of Pakistan. These concerns are: How stable is President Pervez Musharaf’s government? How secure is the nuclear capability of Pakistan and How best the Afghan problem could be resolved? This article attempts to answer these.
The present regime in Pakistan is well-poised, but would continue weakening in direct proportion to the intensity and duration of bombing of Afghanistan. In other words, the decision lies squarely with America, whether the government in Pakistan should survive or otherwise. Should it be necessary to remove it, what modality would be followed? There are precedences of the past, but God forbid, if Raza Shah Pehlvi’s fate is repeated, because there are indications to this effect. It is a patent reality that the Afghan tribal sardars have lost their hold and credibility, and Taliban’s ideology-based leadership has found favour with the people. Similarly, there is a marked trend in Pakistan where tribals are also increasingly leaning towards the religious and jehadi leadership. This is testified by the fact that on the call by the religious leaders, a great number of tribal people are lining up to join the Jehad in Afghanistan. In other parts of Pakistan also, public resentment against American aggression is progressively mounting. What is particularly significant is, that, even the moderate political elements are joining the agitation. Generally, the middle-of-the road political parties have endorsed the US plan, but now the issue is becoming more religious than political. It is on this account that otherwise not too popular religious parties are gaining political ground. It is indeed ironical that the idea of Talibanization of Pakistan, which was dismissed in the past, is now appearing to be the emerging reality.
There are two kinds of apprehensions being expressed with respect to Pakistan’s nuclear capability. Should the religious parties gain power, the nuclear assets of Pakistan would be rendered insecure? If America continues to perpetuate the kind of atrocities on the innocent people of Afghanistan, the religious parties stand to gain and may eventually seize political power not necessarily through the ballot. But it is a fallacy to assume that they would be reckless with the nuclear arsenal, because they would be as prudent and patriotic as any political or military leadership could be. No matter, who rules Pakistan, be it Army, an elected political party or a religious group, patriotism would never be compromised.
The second aspect of the nuclear issue is directly linked to the sinister designs of our adversaries. In the past, Israel and India in collusion with each other, have attempted to attack our nuclear installations but their attempts were thwarted. The foolproof safety arrangements by Pakistan, makes it fully protected. Even if an attack is launched, Pakistan is fully capable of a second strike against targets in India because our nuclear programme is India-specific, even though range of our missiles is way beyond India to over 2500 miles. Since in the past India, in collusion with Israel made several attempts to attack our nuclear assets, now when USA and Israel appear to be predisposed towards such an action, India seems to be perturbed, and it is on this account that its Defence Minister has clarified that his country would not be a party to the conspiracy, which Israel and USA may be hatching. But who may believe India that they are not hand in glove with each other.
The attack on Afghanistan is expressive of extreme anger and motive of revenge, with no inter mingling of political dispensation. It is on this account that military action has failed to achieve its objectives. Political routes are seemingly blocked. The mistake that USA committed is that quit impulsively it waged war, without gaining full information and as such it is bogged down in the blind alleys of Afghanistan. The responsibility rests squarely with Colin Powell, Donald Ramsfled and General Richard Myer. They must be made accountable, as they are instrumental in not only embrassing America, but the whole world is dismayed. Disenchanted Pakistans’ predicament is indeed very distressing, as nothing seems to be clear and certain.
It is America, which initiated the war. To continue with it or to stop it is the choice it can exercise. It is very likely that the war would be prolonged, as America has objectives beyond uprooting of Al-Qaida and over throw of Taliban. It is the endeavour of USA that the eastern part of Afghanistan, extending from Mazar-e-Sharif to Kabul is brought under its control. In the first phase therefore, capture of Mazar-e-Sharif, is essential to open the Mazar-e-Sharif – Termez – Dushambe highway, for military build-up and logistic support. This objective has been achieved, and now after consolidating its hold over this area, it would move towards Kabul. This would enable USA to have full control over the land route from Pakistan to Uzbekistan. In other words the presence and control from the Indian Ocean to the Caspian Sea, through the contiguous territorial areas, would fulfill the dream to control Eurasia and reservoir of wealth of oil, gas and minerals in Central Asia and the Caspian Sea. This seems to be the Game Plan, and to carve-out Eastern half of Afghanistan, as an independent state, like East Taimur, a la courtesy United Nations, would be the first major step.
Afghanistan and Talibans problems are not that insoluble. God has endowed humans with intellect and power of rationality, and USA must reflect the magnanamity that is congruent to being a super power and the choice must be exercised through a cool frame of mind, and in conformity with what Taliban Shoora have counseled: Initiate dialogue and negotiations. Animosity must turn into friendly encounter as tolerance and accommodation are the pathways to peace.
Justice is the fulcrum of human existence. The world is an abode for both the weak and the strong. The affluent and the poor must coexist. What is sacrosanct is human dignity. Perhaps, God has ordained the valiant Afghans, to establish this reality. During the eighties, the proud Afghans defeated a super power, the Soviet Union. In the nineties, they defeated the combined forces of Russia, India, Iran, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. And now, after twenty years of incessant sufferings and sacrifices, draught, and destructions, they are pitted against the sole super power of the world, supported by its allies around the globe. Yet it is nothing short of a miracle that Afghans appear to have won the battle without fighting. Real battle would start now when the American ground forces get mobilized against them after the capture of Mazar-e-Sharif. The victory of Afghanistan is an eloquent testimony that ‘ntangibles’ entailing righteousness, and truth, prevail over “tangibles” – no matter how sophisticated the armament and equipment of the opposing forces may be.
Let me reiterate what I said in my earlier article titled: The Clouds of War over Afghanistan: “The Afghan nation has never lost a war. The future victory will also be theirs. It is truly, a clash of two civilizations. One is furiously inclined towards revenge, with overly inflated ego and arrogance of power, the other has faith in the will of God, which gives them a sense of composure, where fear of death does not distract determination. Verily the will of God would prevail”.
Afghans resolutely adhere to the adage: To be vanguished and yet not surrender that is victory”