George W. Bush Vs Mulla Umar
General Mirza Aslam Beg
Both the leaders are as much far apart in their approach to life as is the distance between Washington and Kabul. William Bush threatened to hunt the terrorists, kill them, inflict such punishment on Afghanistan as to turn it into stone age, get Osama dead or alive, defeat the Taliban and install a pro-American regime, whereas Mulla Umar has remained calm, cool and mysterious as the deep sea. Taliban shoora suggested that Osama could leave Afghanistan (provided Saudi Arabia restored his citizenship). It also suggested dialogue with the Americans, but these suggestions were considered too presumptuous and were promptly rejected, and American and allied forces were mobilized to undertake aerial attacks on Afghanistan starting 7 October, hitting targets such as air bases, command and communication centres, electric power stations, suspected hide-outs of Osama & Taliban and the terrorists training camps. In response Mulla Umar declared jihad and asked the Muslim countries meeting at Doha on 10th October to either choose to support the Americans or Afghanistan. The Ummah opted in favour of the Americans.
Mulla Umar therefore is alone in his fight against the Americans and the allies, while in the eighties the Afghans fought against the Soviets supported by USA and its allies. The odds now seem to be one to hundred for Mulla Umar and Taliban. And after six days of air action, Americans claim to have achieved air superiority over Afghanistan. (I bet that a Pakistani pilot, with one F-16, can gain air superiority over Afghanistan in a single day against the absolete aircraft and air defense system of the Taliban). More than 300 innocent civilians have been killed , ground opposition has been softened, and the Americans are now preparing to launch heli and paraborne troops against selected targets. Bush has threatened, that such punishment will continue indefinitely.
After six days of aerial bombing and targeting, it is claimed that communication centres have been destroyed, yet Taliban’s command communication net-work, based on portable walkie-talkie sets is fully operative. Their logistic support has no tail, as it follows the foot soldiers and the local population provides extra support. Their strength has swelled to about 60,000 armed fighters. The local militia and the armed jihadis now number 30,000/40,000. More are on the move from the tribal belt of Pakistan and other areas. Taliban are waiting for the ground battle, as their strength lies in the foot soldiers, difficult terrain and the experience of fighting out-numbered. Taliban plan to hold cities and towns lightly, to lure the enemy in, and then encircle them to destroy. Their morale is high as they have not experienced the shock of American air power. In fact they compete with each other to locate the falling bombs and claim the lead and cartridges which sell at a premium. They prefer cluster bombs, as they deliver greater payload of lead and cartridges. They have already collected about 20 unexploded Tomahawk cruise missiles, waiting for a buyer, including Pakistanis who got free of cost 27 such missiles in 1998 for reverse engineering. Taliban hold enough stocks of weapons and ammunition. Replenishment is no problem, because borders with Pakistan and Iran are porous. It is reported that the stinger missiles, whose shelf life is almost over, have been replaced with more effective systems.
Taliban who have been fighting the internecine war against the Afghan opposition since 1994, are now fully steeled and have found substance and meaning in jihad against the Americans and are prepared to fight to the last, to defeat the aggression. The American war against the Taliban goes to prove the point that Taliban are not an implant. They truly represent the tribal will of Afghanistan. In fact they are the young generation in the form of Taliban, which has taken control of the destiny of the Afghan people, something similar to the youth in Iran which has given the verdict in favour of an Islamic Democratic Order, thus providing the psychological harmony between the two countries, to face the common threat.
Opposing the Taliban on ground are the three factions of Northern alliance, who are mainly mercenaries. The faction working under Muhammad Ismail had been operating East of Herat in the province of Ghor. They claim to have made some gains, in Ghor province, which is a far off place, and does not bother the Taliban much. Some supporters of Dostum are operating west of Mazar-e-Sharif but they do not pose a real threat, as the Pakhtoon population around Mazar-e-Sharif in itself is capable of thwarting any attempt towards the city. The main wing of the Northern alliance comprising 10,000 - 12000 soldiers, under command Mulla Faheem in Badakhshan province is a demoralized force, waiting to ride the American tanks to capture Kabul, where they will find the Taliban waiting for them.
In the south, Zahir Shah supporters, with the help of agencies and some political parties are trying to raise a militia from the tribal belt of Paktia, Paktika, Khost and Loghar. Some of the old jihadi commanders like Dr. Abdullah, Dr. Abdul Rahman and Commander Bismillah, have been identified as leaders. All possible methods are being employed to buy the support of the tribals for the new opposition group to the Taliban, but most of the tribes like Waziris, Shinwaris, Muhmands, Kharot, Zadron and Tanais have decided to support the Taliban. The Tanais who are a known pro-Shah tribe, received the bulk of relief airdrop, recently but were condemned as Israeli/American agents and were forced to burn the food stuff to prove their loyalty to the Taliban. This pro-Zahir Shah group, when formed, will try to enter Kabul and Kandahar where they will find Taliban waiting for a befitting reception.
The turn of the events have placed Iran in a unique position. The recent statements by their leaders, condemning American military action against the Taliban, reportedly brought tears in the eyes of Mulla Umar, as they are the only country, which shares with them, the pain of their sufferings, deprivation and isolation. Mulla Umar acknowledges the support by the people of Pakistan, particularly the people of Punjab, whose support he considers of special significance.
The Americans have a clear technological edge over the Taliban so long as they continue using the air power from the safe heights of 20,000 ft and above. And now, they appear to be ready to launch lightening ground attacks, to occupy and destroy selected targets and return to their bases without getting involved in combat with the Taliban. Such operations will continue for some time, till the Northern alliance under Mulla Fahim or the southern alliance under Dr. Abdullah is ready to venture towards Kabul and Kandahar. They may well reach their objectives but to hold on to these cities would be impossible without the physical support of American troops. In 1979, having installed a puppet regime at Kabul, Soviets had to induct more than 100,000 troops to sustain them, but failed. How many troops can the American bring, is yet to be seen.
William Bush and Mulla Umar, representing two different civilizations and with different values of life are pitched against each other, not being able to establish balance between freedom and responsibility. One is overly intoxicated with a sense of being a super power, enjoying the support of the civilized world, is boiling from within with anger and urge for revenge. The other, having suffered the ravages of war for over two decades, with a population suffering from hunger, drought and disease, abandoned by their traditional friend Pakistan and forsaken by the Ummah, have totally resigned to their destiny and faith in Allah, which makes death an adorable commitment, is ready to face the challenge, presenting dialects of the opposing wills - one equipped with material strength and the other through faith. This indeed is a unique war, which will prove that grandeur and depth of human life is too great to be captured in one culture.
American and Allies military power has failed to break the will of the Taliban, and both are drifting towards a deadly grid-lock. With such a mind set, the aerial punishment will continue, producing more rubbles and much greater number of casualties of innocent Afghans. This will not weaken, but would rather strengthen the resolve of the Taliban to fight back, as the tribal support gravitates towards them. Thus Pakistan would face a very difficult situation, as the prospects of holding elections in October 2002 may greatly diminish. Even if the elections are held, the youth may emerge the ultimate victor to face the crisis or even otherwise, just as youth now prevail in Iran and Afghanistan.
Tolstoy said: “Faith is the force of life” and Taliban may well prove it right.