General Mirza Aslam Beg,

The Iraqi nation has shown its resolve and resilience, to stand-up against the over-powering superiority of the aggressor, who has been forced to recoil back, for replenishment and re-enforcement. It is the coalition forces, which suffer from “shock and awe” due to the stiff resistance and the remarkable display of courage and capability, to fight according to a well thought-out war plan, which is holistic in conception, embracing all tenets of operational strategy. Yet it will be pre-mature to say, that the tide has turned, because, the aggressor enjoys complete superiority of resources, technology and flexibility of maneuver to regain the balance, notwithstanding the devastating air strikes, which have failed to impact on the ‘will’ of the defender. It is therefore proper to analyse the conduct of war, for arriving at rational reflections.

New power paradigm is on the offing and Baghdad may well emerge as a catalyst to New Global Order, brining an end to unipolarity and all the arrogance that goes with it. There is no denying the fact that, Iraq in its defiance against the mightiest power of the globe, will emerge as the harbinger of a New World Order, which humanity is longing for too long. Bipolarity of the Cold War period had built-in safety for the weak. Soviet Union’s demise enabled USA to assume absolute power, which corrupted it absolutely. Iraq, which happens to be the custodian of great civilizational heritage, is perhaps ordained to bring sanity in the otherwise chaotic world.

The present war in Iraq is asymmetrical and hardly a war in the true sense of the term. It is outright massacre and orgy of destruction. Missiles and bombs are being hurled on innocent people of Iraq, with killing power no less than that of weapons of mass destruction. Iraq is pitted against the mightiest force of the world, yet it has demonstrated a colossal reservoir of moral force to sustain the resistance. What will be the outcome is hard to predict. One thing however, is becoming patently perceptible that USA’s arrogance of power, obstinacy and defiance of global opinion, based on its overly inflated sense of power and pre-eminence, will come to an end, to expose how impotent could power be.

On the basis of the experience in Afghanistan, with the Northern Alliance, USA had miscalculated, that a sizeable number of Iraqis would also join hands in the ouster of Saddam Hussain. This did not happen, causing a setback from the very outset. Despite the differences, that, the Iraqi people may have had with their ruler, on the question of the integrity of their country, there was no compromise. The aggressor was not greeted and a formidable resistance is being put-up, upsetting the plans of the invaders.

It is a truism that, when several fronts are opened in a war, it becomes that much difficult to extract victory. USA, surprisingly has defied this principle as they are fighting the war, simultaneously, on several fronts. Their first encounter is with the people and the armed forces of Iraq, who are resolutely glued together to defend their motherland. There is no moral force, supporting the coalition forces, because the global opinion is grossly against the war. USA is also fighting a war, which ironically has a dwindling support from its own people. The war has intensely antagonized the Islamic world, which views Iraq with great reverence, being the abode of its prophets and saints. The US forces are also facing the hazards of the weather, which after few weeks will cause serious problems for the foot soldiers and hi-tech weapons.

To fight battles, simultaneously at so many fronts, is no expression of sagacity and practical wisdom. Under these conditions it is imperative that, the allies reconsider their strategy and revise their plans. In the event they do not, they would land themselves into a quagmire, entailing great losses and setbacks. All good planners of war are aware of the fact that, if preparations for war are sound and meticulous, “battle is won before it is joined” whereas the coalition forces are encountering failure from the day one, and the more they move in this direction, the more they will err, encountering blunders and disillusionment.

Learning lessons from 1991 war, the Iraqi army has adopted the technique of siege and fortification around big cities and towns, leaving the main avenues of approaches undefended, so that the enemy is extended into the open spaces, presenting easy targets for the guerilla forces. So far the Coalition Forces have not been able to reduce any of the fortress except Ume Qasr, thus retarding their advance towards Baghdad. Iraq has evolved a very effective system of defense of the country by creating four combat zones, each under a commander, enjoying freedom of action, to suit the exigencies of situations. These are:

· Combat Zone, Basra – Has been placed under the command of Fidayan-e-Saddam, who are joined by Jihadis and local volunteers.

· Combat Zone, Karbala – Is the responsibility of the Tribal Badoeen, supported by Fidayan-e-Saddam, Mujahideen and volunteers.

· Combat Zone, Mousel – Is under the command of Mujahideen, assisted by Fidayan-e-Saddam and volunteers. Mujahideen are drawn mainly from the Islamic Jihad group of post Afghanistan war, are heading for Iraq. According to the estimates of Director General CIA, Robert Tenet, they number over 60,000, spread in 70 countries of the world.

· Combat Zone, Baghdad – Is the responsibility of the Republican Guards, supported by ten infantry divisions, and over 50,000 Fidayan-e-Saddam, besides thousands of Mujahideen. Total number of combat troops exceeds 350,000.

The Coalition forces, have reached within 40/60 Kilometers of Baghdad. They crossed river Tigris near Nasiriyah and are progressing towards Baghdad. The offensive, which was to be started from the North opening a new front, did not materialize, due to refusal by Turkey to use their territory. During the past few days, two of the infantry divisions have been air lifted to North and West of Baghdad and have linked-up with forces advancing from the South. So far, about 100,000 Coalition forces have been committed between Ume Qasr and Baghdad and after 10 days of fighting are fatigued and exhausted, and therefore reinforcement of about 100000, has been moved to join them for advance towards Baghdad.

The defenses of Baghdad have been organized in several layers, strengthened by fire trenches, thus making it extremely difficult to break the siege. The Coalition forces may take another 7 to 10 days, to muster the support for the battle of siege of Baghdad, and can augment a maximum of 150,000 troops including the reinforcements. This strength is totally inadequate to overpower Baghdad, defended by over 350,000 troops, because they need a superiority of five to one, to win this battle. The assault on Baghdad therefore, is not likely to bear fruition. Under these circumstances, the allied forces will be left, only with one option and that is, to use the air power with a vengeance, which will undoubtedly result in greater death and destructions. Additionally, the Main Supply Route (MSR) through Ume Qasr to Karbala and Baghdad would be under constant attacks by the guerillas. It would, therefore, be hard to use the MSR for supplies, relying more on airlifts, which undoubtedly will retard the operations. The weather also would prove a treacherous enemy. As the temperature rises, it will seriously affect the performance of troops and high-tech weapons and equipment. The momentum of the offensive is already staggering.

The mountainous areas and the desert in the west, contiguous to the borders with Iran, Turkey, Syria, Jordan and Saudi Arabia, will provide sanctuaries and bases to the Mujahideen and the guerillas. The war will thus, expand in dimensions, to offer a golden opportunity to Russia, to avenge its defeat and humiliation suffered in Afghanistan. Russians may have the last laugh at the Americans, for a self-created problem. Under these circumstances, USA and the Coalition partners are left with hard choices. Rather than letting things get worse and go beyond control, they should seek cooperation of United Nations to find a respectable solution to the problem. The second option is typically egoistic in nature, i.e., to let things take their own course and refrain from compromising, lest it is perceived as symptom of weakness. Left to itself the war may follow its own dynamics, with serious consequences and it’s spilling over effect on the region. Yet the most serious danger is, the emergence of a breed of Jihadis several times larger, than the Afghan counterparts, making the task of combating terrorism, a near impossibility. It is indeed a great irony that USA is manufacturing Jihadis under the so-called war on terror.

American war on Iraq has sowed the seeds of Iraqi war of liberation, more dangerous than Palestine and Kashmir. It is time that United Nations realizes the sensitivity and magnitude of these problems, to make concerted efforts to resolve them in time. The global peace is at stake. USA has a grave responsibility to find solution based on equity and justice. Sizing the enormity of the problem, France, Germany, Russia and China have taken sagacious steps and history will duly acknowledge their contributions in determining the contours of the New Global World Order.

The Iraq war will bring in its wake many changes and ripples in the prevailing global order. Unipolarity is on the wane. France, Germany, Russia and China may emerge as the balancing counterweight to USA. Russia may well be a witness to the collapse of US hegemony in this war and avenge its defeat in Afghanistan. Not only will power structure of the world change, but there may erupt a grim struggle for control of oil in Iraq, in the northern regions of Mousel and Kirkuk, with Mujahideen, as one of the contenders. The geo-economic world order will also change, as globalization is too tilted in favour of the interests of the rich and the affluent. The world is at a choice point, to adjust its economy in favour of dollar or euro – an opportunity created by this war. The transformation is eminent, emerging from the Strategic Defiance of the people of Iraq, which sets an example for the weak and the oppressed to set the limit of the power of the hegemons.

Sagacity, wisdom, restraint and tolerance, must determine the new direction of history. As great philosopher, Whitehead said, “the pursuit of freedom with an intolerant mentality is self defeating”.